Forecaster I

At HHSC, we strive to make a difference in the lives of our fellow citizens. We

need your sound actuarial, statistical, and data analysis skills, along with your

ability to make logical decisions and recommendations based on complex

inputs to help the Forecasting Department succeed at providing timely and

accurate predictive analysis.

The Actuary I (Forecaster) plays an important role on the Health and Human

Services Forecasting Team, with assignments ranging from forecasting to

providing critical support of forecasting for various HHS programs, including

Medicaid Acute/Long-Term Services and Supports, Vendor Drug, Children's

Health Insurance Program (CHIP), or Temporary Assistance to Needy Families

(TANF).

Working with other forecasters and HHS program staff and team members, the

Forecaster will perform complex and interesting statistical and research

functions with moderate supervision from the Team Lead. The Forecaster is

responsible for the initial run of all forecasts from their area and will verify and

maintain the integrity of data used in forecasting and reporting for their area.

The Forecaster position requires moderate judgment, with moderate latitude to

make recommendations on data issues and forecasts. The successful

candidate will balance sound actuarial, statistical, and scientific judgment with

logical decisions to make recommendations to the team.

The Forecasting Team has proven to be successful operating in a hybrid In-

Office/Telework environment. The regular schedule is 60% Telework and 40%

in-office, subject to temporary adjustment based on work needs.

 Essential Job Functions:

Under the direction of the manager/team lead, the Forecaster develops complex statistical models, such as time series models, using SAS, R, Autobox, or other software, including Excel, to forecast HHS programs and evaluate the performance of such models (30%). The Forecaster maintains and updates complex spreadsheets on a continual basis. The Forecaster routinely pulls and analyzes historical data to ensure accuracy and appropriateness for use in forecasting. The Forecaster provides reports to management, the Legislative Budget Board, and others, on a monthly or quarterly basis, on the performance of models, as well as trends seen in the data, and performs ad-hoc queries and runs simulations on request . Other duties as assigned. 

1. Graduation from a 4-year college or university with major coursework in a social science, business, statistical or related field.

2. Experience with statistical software (such as SAS) and/or forecasting software.

3. Extensive knowledge of Excel, including linking multiple worksheets and use of pivot tables.

4. Knowledge of Forecasting Principles.

5. Ability to communicate effectively.

 Registration or Licensure Requirements:

N/A  

1. Graduation from a 4-year college or university with major coursework in a social science, business, statistical/mathematical or related field. 2. Experience with statistical software (such as SAS) and/or forecast modeling software (including in Excel). 3. Extensive knowledge of Excel, including linking multiple worksheets and use of pivot tables.